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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that proposals for a peace deal developed with US officials are poised to be finalised in a matter of days. Following this, American envoys will submit the documentation to the Kremlin.

Berlin Talks Yield Major Headway, With Critical Obstacles Persist

After two days of discussions in Berlin, US officials reported on Monday that around “90%” of the contentious issues between Russia and Ukraine had been resolved. Although the outlook appears positive, the path to ending the conflict remains uncertain, particularly because Russia's lack of participation from the ongoing discussions.

Early Tuesday morning, Zelenskyy noted that the American legislature was anticipated to vote on security guarantees and that a finalised set of agreements might be ready “today or tomorrow.” Subsequently, the United States would engage in discussions with Moscow, potentially followed by summit-level talks possibly this weekend.

Security Guarantees and International Support

“The plan involves five key agreements. Some of them concern binding security pledges: formally ratified, that is, voted on and approved by the United States Congress,” Zelenskyy commented to journalists. He clarified that these guarantees would “mirror the collective defense clause” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

On Monday, American representatives did not provide precise information regarding the probable makeup of the security package or the consequences if Russia sought to capture additional territory following an agreement. Officials did confirm that the United States does not intend to deploy troops on the ground in Ukraine.

Leaders from the UK, France, Germany and several additional European countries issued a joint statement that troops from a “coalition of the willing” could “help with the regeneration of Ukrainian military capabilities, in protecting Ukraine’s skies, and in supporting safer seas, including through operating inside its territory.”

They stopped short, however, of suggesting these actions would serve as guarantees matching Nato’s article 5. Furthermore, there is scant indication that Moscow is anywhere close to accepting the type of package being negotiated between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Kremlin Response and Territorial Dispute

The following day, the Kremlin said it had not received the specifics of the plans for security assurances. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergey Ryabkov, declared that Russia would never accept troops from NATO member states being stationed in Ukraine “under any circumstances.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian negotiators and their American counterparts remains the issue of land. One proposal involves Kyiv ceding the parts of the Donbas region it still holds, while Ukraine prefers to freeze the lines. “We are discussing the land dispute. You know, it is a central problem. At this point, there is no agreement on it yet,” the president said after the Berlin talks.

The US negotiation team, headed by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has proposed a compromise solution. Under this plan would see Ukrainian forces pull back, but Russian troops would not advance, with the resulting zone becoming “a free economic zone.” Russia has indicated it could use police and national guard formations rather than the army in such an area, implying it would still seek to control the territory.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘special economic zone’ does not mean under the control of Moscow. Not legally or in practice will we recognise the Donbas region – its temporarily occupied part – as belonging to Russia. Absolutely,” stated President Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Possible Scenarios

It is not clear how the two sides will resolve the land question. Zelenskyy has previously suggested that a negotiated arrangement such as a free economic zone might be theoretically possible if the citizens of Ukraine voted for it in a national vote. The critical stumbling block is likely to be when the proposals are presented to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has given no sign he is prepared to concede on his military objectives.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will face precisely the situation we are encountering on our flight right now – instability,” commented the president, recording the comments after his plane departed from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will apply sanctions pressure and provide us with additional armaments if he rejects everything. In my view, that would be a fair request from us to the Americans,” he concluded.